CABI has used the tried and tested Pest Risk Information Service (PRISE) data model to compile a comprehensive risk assessment of the Kenyan coffee sector and create a model to help smallholder farmers tackle the coffee berry borer pest.
The coffee berry borer is a major coffee pest of both arabica and robusta coffee worldwide, threatening production and farmers’ livelihoods. In Kenya, the pest is a particular problem in low-altitude zones and can cause up to 80% losses.
Erratic rainfall and other effects of climate change – particularly in the east and west rift valley – make it hard to break the pest lifecycle.
Data model which can predict the emergence of coffee berry borer
However, as part of a project funded by Innovate UK and Innosuise, CABI and partners Farmer Connect, Trade in Space and the Kenya Agricultural & Livestock Research Organisation (KALRO) Coffee Research Institute (CRI), have created a data model which can predict the emergence of coffee berry borer and provide accurate timings for intervention strategies.
CRI officers have been trained to collect coffee phenology, pest phenological development information and weather data, focusing on Kirinyaga County – a major Kenyan coffee-growing region on the slopes of Mount Kenya.
The models generate practical, location-specific outputs—such as alerts indicating when farmers need to act against coffee berry borer, and forecasts predicting key coffee growth stages like flowering, berry expansion, and harvest timing.
Together, these outputs support farmers with timely, evidence-based decision-making to protect yields and improve the quality of their coffee.
Highlighted the need to scale the initiative nationwide
The coffee berry borer is a major coffee pest of both arabica and robusta coffee worldwide (Credit: Bryony Taylor).
Pascale Bodevin, Project Manager at CABI, said, the collaborative work included farmers completing a farm management survey to capture contextual data on farm structure, shade, altitude and management practices to support interpretation of phenology and pest patterns; crop phenology tracking of flowering, fruit development and ripening stages used to trigger key stages in the cascade pest model.
Henry Mibei, Project Manager, Digital Development, Africa, said, “Coffee berry borer assessments were also carried out to calibrate emergence predictions and position information. In-situ climate monitoring (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity sensors alongside manual rain gauges) provided key microclimate inputs for the phenology and pest models.”
CRI has highlighted the need to scale the initiative nationwide, beyond the pilot sites and deliver the advisories and time-to-act (TTA) messages directly to coffee farmers across Kenya to reduce the damage caused by coffee berry borer to the Kenya supply chain.
Early warning and advice to farmers
The Pest Risk Information Service (PRISE) is a CABI-led project that provides early warning and advice to farmers, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, about potential pest outbreaks.
It uses satellite earth observation, climate data, pest models, and real-time field observations to predict pest surges, such as for the fall armyworm and the coffee berry borer. This data-driven approach helps farmers reduce crop losses and chemical pesticide use, leading to higher yields, increased incomes, and improved environmental health.
PRISE alerts have benefited over 2 million farmers in Kenya, Ghana, Zambia and Malawi from 2017 to 2024, and increased their yields by 13% on average.
Additional information
Main image: Researchers in the field on a mission to tackle the coffee berry borer with alerts indicating when farmers need to act and forecasts predicting key coffee growth stages like flowering, berry expansion, and harvest timing (Credit: CABI).
Project page
Find out more from the project page ‘Coffee berry borer modelling for Kenyan coffee production.’
Story of Impact
‘Pest risk information service helps 1.8m farmers achieve 1:182 return on investment.’
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