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Abstract

Accounting for the instability of tourism income elasticities in the European Union-15 since 2004, estimations show that income elasticities in the period 2004-2014 were greater in slow-growth periods (above 1) than in fast-growth periods (below 1). Due to the gradual deterioration of the economic...

Author(s)
Gunter, U.; Smeral, E.
Publisher
Wiley, Chichester, UK
Citation
International Journal of Tourism Research, 2017, 19, 3, pp 269-277
Abstract

This study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.; Song HaiYan
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK
Citation
International Journal of Tourism Research, 2015, 17, 2, pp 140-150
Abstract

This study looks into ways of estimating tourism demand models while accounting for asymmetric income effects on demand across business cycles and using the estimated equations to forecast until 2015. Expenditure for outbound travel (tourism imports) in five source markets are analysed using...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
IP Publishing Limited, London, UK
Citation
Tourism Economics, 2014, 20, 1, pp 61-72
Abstract

The focus of this study is on presenting causes and hypotheses for the existence of asymmetric income and price effects on tourism demand across business cycles. The theoretical assumptions were tested by analyzing tourism import demand in different source markets, drawing on econometric models...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd, Oxford, UK
Citation
Annals of Tourism Research, 2012, 39, 1, pp 379-400
Abstract

In the face of the world recession, this article concentrates on analyzing and forecasting demand for outbound traveling in Australia, Canada, United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic ...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, USA
Citation
Journal of Travel Research, 2010, 49, 1, pp 31-38
Abstract

This study aims to analyse and forecast demand for international travel of the EU 15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Starting out from a description of the key macroeconomic factors, it then analyses their effect on tourism demand and develops forecast...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, USA
Citation
Journal of Travel Research, 2009, 48, 1, pp 3-13
Abstract

This study uses time-series techniques and econometric approaches to quantify the effects that organizing an EU presidency has on the tourism exports of a country. The approach of explaining tourism revenues by a time-series intervention model filters out special effects (data discontinuations,...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.; Wüger, M.
Publisher
IP Publishing Limited, London, UK
Citation
Tourism Economics, 2008, 14, 2, pp 313-324
Abstract

Building multivariate causal models for world tourism or world subregions could be very difficult as the necessary short-term information, such as monthly data on the independent variables determining tourism demand, is either not available or very labour and cost intensive to obtain. In order to...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
IP Publishing Limited, London, UK
Citation
Tourism Economics, 2007, 13, 2, pp 309-317
Abstract

When viewed from a long-term perspective, international tourism shows dynamic growth rates. Over the past 40 or 50 years, its development was linked to several changes in its structure, the growth of tourism demand and employment, and changes in the price of tourist services. In this context,...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.; Prilisauer, K.
Publisher
Lucius & Lucius Verslagsgesellschaft mbH, Stuttgart, Germany
Citation
Tourismus Journal, 2004, 8, 3, pp 321-344
Abstract

Modifications of earlier versions of models to make forecasts for world tourism allow us to trace the effects of changes in income and prices produced by and in each individual country considered in this model. At the theoretical level, in using a share approach these models could be viewed as...

Author(s)
Smeral, E.
Publisher
IP Publishing Limited, London, UK
Citation
Tourism Economics, 2004, 10, 2, pp 145-166

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