Mexico eases restrictions, but economy still suffers
There are signs that the influenza outbreak (popularly referred to as swine
flu, but more accurately termed A/H1N1 influenza) in Mexico has passed its peak.
There is a fall in new cases recorded in Mexico, and the number of deaths
attributed to the disease has been revised downwards after testing of suspected
cases. Restaurants and cafes in Mexico City are to reopen from Wednesday 6 May,
and libraries, museums and churches will follow suit the following day. However,
cinemas, theatres and bars will remain closed for the time being, and it is
impossible to say at the moment how long the effects on tourism will remain.
What is certain, however, is that the economic consequences of the outbreak have
already been severe for Mexico.
On Saturday 2 May, the government said that Mexico's tourism has been hit
hard by the H1N1 flu outbreak. The occupancy rate for major tourist sites in
Mexico is expected to decline by 44.8 percent in the coming ten days, Mexican
tourism authorities predicted.
Tourism Minister Rodolfo Elizondo told a press conference that a series of
cultural, business and academic activities in Mexico have been canceled,
including the world pediatrics conference which had been expected to draw some
4,000 podiatrists worldwide.
In such resorts as Cancun and the Maya coast, the occupancy rate of hotels,
which should have been flooded with tourists in this season, has decreased to
77.8 percent since April 23 when the government announced urgent anti-flu
measures.
He also confirmed that such countries as Cuba, Canada, Argentina, Ecuador,
Peru and Chile have canceled their flights to Mexico, while the number of U.S.
tourists to Mexico has seen a sharp fall.
The minister asked the country's tourism centers to conduct a precise
analysis of their economic losses caused by the outbreak of A/H1N1 flu.
The Mexican economy had already been struggling. Oil prices have dropped
since last years high, and remittances from Mexican workers in the United States
have fallen due to the economic downturn there. With tourism hit, millions of
low-paid waiters, maids and other workers have seen their incomes plummet and
jobs put under threat.
The worst effects have been in Mexico City, where the economy has been
virtually shut down for the last few days. Hotel occupancy rates in Mexico City
are at record lows, between 5 and 7 percent, according to economic forecasters
at IHS Global Insight. Mexico City accounts for nearly a quarter of the
country's economic output, and its Chamber of Commerce said business closures
are costing the city $57 million a day, more than a third of the local economy.
The official Cancun tourism Web site said that although no H1N1 flu cases
have appeared in the state of Quintana Roo, the top Mexican resort destination,
"sanitary measures have been extended to all hotels, restaurants and shops
along the Mexican Caribbean corridor." The Cancun airport is using infrared
thermometers to detect fevers among arriving passengers, although the agency is
predicting "an important drop of tourist arrivals and hotel occupancy...in
all Quintana Roo destinations, as well as a significant reduction of air
traffic."
According to Rodrigo de la Pena, president of the Cancun Hotel Association,
the destination has lost an estimated $2.4 million in the last week as hotel
occupancy dropped well below the norm for the time of year.
Five of the world's largest cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean, have
cancelled stops at ports in Mexico. Other cruise lines are continuing to stop in
Mexico but are assuring passengers that ships are clean and risk is low because
most reported illnesses are inland. No cases of swine flu have been reported on
any cruise ships that have docked in Mexico, a country ranked in the world's top
10 cruise destinations, with nearly 6.5 million passengers in 2008.
While Mexico is losing out, other cruise destinations are benefitting from
changed itineraries. Key West is reaping about $400,000 in extra disembarkation
fees from cruise ships that were destined for ports of call in Mexico, but
changed destinations because of the H1N1 virus.
"There is an increase in ships being rerouted to Key West," said
Alyson Crean, a spokeswoman for the city. "We're receiving about 19 extra
calls this month."
And the Caribbean may benefit from tourists booking trips there rather than
to Mexico. Travel agents in the USA are reported to be recommending destinations
such as Jamaica and the Dominican Republic as alternatives to Mexican beach
resorts.
Mexico has said it will take an intense publicity campaign to win back
tourists. Tourism Minister Rodolfo Elizondo says he will send officials to China
and Canada to learn how those countries revived their industries after being
slammed by SARS six years ago. Taxes on visiting cruise ships are being reduced
to try and lure them back. But meanwhile, Continental Airlines, the largest U.S.
carrier to Mexico, has said it will cut in half the number of seats it flies to
that country because of reduced demand. The airline is using smaller planes and
reducing flight numbers, and plans to waive penalties for flight cancellations
for passengers traveling to Mexico through May 31.
The lessons of SARS
The 2003 outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), resulted in
more than 8,000 cases and 810 deaths in 29 countries, according to estimates by
the World Health Organization.
The economic impact of SARS in East and Southeast Asia was about $18 billion,
or 0.6 percentage points of the 2003 gross domestic product, according to the
Asian Development Bank. Tourism was hit the hardest, falling 20 to 70 percent in
April 2003 and leading to an estimated tourism revenue loss of nearly $15
billion.
SARS-affected economies also saw retail sales fall 5 to 10 percent in early
2003, the Asian Development Bank said. Hong Kong's economy shrank 2.6 percent
and Singapore's declined 2 percent in the first half of 2003.
The virus spread to Canada, costing that country about Can$1.5 bn in lost
gross domestic product, including about $1.1 billion in tourism revenue in 2003,
according to the Conference Board of Canada.
The impact of SARS on tourism, and measures taken to revive the industry
following the epidemic, can be researched using the Leisuretourism.com database.
A search for 'SARS' currently finds over 100 bibliographic records, a selection
of which are listed below. Of particular interest, Kuo et al. (2008) assess both
the impact of SARS and the potential impact of an influenza pandemic. Tew et al.
(2008) look at the lessons from SARS for how to prepare for and manage crises,
while Gu and Wall (2007) report on action taken by China to revive tourism after
the epidemic. McKercher and Chon suggest that much of the impact of SARS on
tourism was due to over-reaction by governments to perceived threat from the
disease.
China has created a diplomatic dispute with Mexico by quarantining Mexican
citizens with no symptoms of influenza. Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia
Espinosa Cantellano has complained this treatment is discriminatory and short of
scientific evidence. He has advised Mexican citizens not to travel to China
until it corrected the discriminatory measures.
China has sent a chartered plane to Mexico to pick up around 200 Chinese
nationals there. The 17-strong crew have been trained on precautions against the
flu and dealing with any health emergencies, reports the Xinhua news agency.