Invasive Species Compendium

Detailed coverage of invasive species threatening livelihoods and the environment worldwide

CABI Book Chapter

Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.

Book cover for Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.


The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup acknowledges that advanced training and a 'tool kit' of software packages are needed to produce pest risk maps that are fully fit for purpose. This book is an initial attempt to address those needs. Invited chapters emphasize specific steps and data requirements to guide users through the development of pest risk models and maps, or components thereof....

Chapter 15 (Page no: 223)

Assessing the quality of pest risk models.

The quality of pest risk models depends on their reliability and validity. Reliability refers to the model's trustworthiness and dependability, but the concept is extended to consistency and stability. Approaches to help establish and test consistency are described. Validity assures that models actually portray the expectations or assertions of the model design. Elements of validity can be characterized as face, criterion, content, concurrent and construct validity; and the merits of these elements are presented. In the social sciences, factor analysis has become the favoured method for evaluating reliability and validity. Factor analysis is especially useful when models group variables into indices. This chapter discusses the rationale and interpretation of components of factor analysis and suggests how this analysis might be incorporated into pest risk analysis in the future. Studies in communication reveal that non-technical end users can better understand and trust risk assessments when the assessments contain the best information presented in real language rather than mathematical expressions.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) The challenge of modelling and mapping the future distribution and impact of invasive alien species. Author(s): Venette, R. C.
Chapter: 2 (Page no: 18) Mapping endangered areas for pest risk analysis. Author(s): Baker, R., Eyre, D., Brunel, S., Dupin, M., Reynaud, P., Jarošík, V.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 35) Following the transportation trail to anticipate human-mediated invasions in terrestrial ecosystems. Author(s): Colunga-Garcia, M., Haack, R. A.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 49) Simulation modelling of long-distance windborne dispersal for invasion ecology. Author(s): Parry, H. R., Eagles, D., Kriticos, D. J.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 65) Using the MAXENT program for species distribution modelling to assess invasion risk. Author(s): Jarnevich, C. S., Young, N.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 82) The NCSU/APHIS plant pest forecasting system (NAPPFAST). Author(s): Magarey, R. D., Borchert, D. M., Fowler, G. A., Hong, S. C.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 97) Detecting and interpreting patterns within regional pest species assemblages using self-organizing maps and other clustering methods. Author(s): Worner, S., Eschen, R., Kenis, M., Paini, D., Saikkonen, K., Suiter, K., Sunil Singh, Vänninen, I., Watts, M.
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 115) Modelling the spread of invasive species to support pest risk assessment: principles and application of a suite of generic models. Author(s): Robinet, C., Kehlenbeck, H., Werf, W. van der
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 131) Estimating spread rates of non-native species: the gypsy moth as a case study. Author(s): Tobin, P. C., Liebhold, A. M., Roberts, E. A., Blackburn, L. M.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 145) Predicting the economic impacts of invasive species: the eradication of the giant sensitive plant from Western Australia. Author(s): Cook, D. C., Sheppard, A., Liu Shuang, Lonsdale, W. M.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 162) Spatial modelling approaches for understanding and predicting the impacts of invasive alien species on native species and ecosystems. Author(s): Allen, C. R., Uden, D. R., Johnson, A. R., Angeler, D. G.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 171) Process-based pest risk mapping using Bayesian networks and GIS. Author(s): Klinken, R. D. van, Murray, J. V., Smith, C.
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 189) Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model. Author(s): Koch, F. H., Yemshanov, D.
Chapter: 14 (Page no: 206) Making invasion models useful for decision makers: incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps and decision-making preferences. Author(s): Yemshanov, D., Koch, F. H., Ducey, M.