Invasive Species Compendium

Detailed coverage of invasive species threatening livelihoods and the environment worldwide

CABI Book Chapter

Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.

Book cover for Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.


The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup acknowledges that advanced training and a 'tool kit' of software packages are needed to produce pest risk maps that are fully fit for purpose. This book is an initial attempt to address those needs. Invited chapters emphasize specific steps and data requirements to guide users through the development of pest risk models and maps, or components thereof....

Chapter 6 (Page no: 82)

The NCSU/APHIS plant pest forecasting system (NAPPFAST).

This chapter describes the North-Carolina-State-University/Animal-and-Plant-Health-Inspection-Service Plant Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST). NAPPFAST, developed for pest risk modelling and mapping, was formerly used to support pest detection, emergency response and risk analysis for the US Department of Agriculture. NAPPFAST employs an internet-based graphical user interface to link weather databases with interactive biological model templates. The weather databases include historical daily weather databases for North America and the world. The templates include degree-days, generic empirical models, infection periods and the Generic Pest Forecast System (GPFS). The GPFS, currently in development, is a model that uses hourly inputs and includes modules for development rate, hot and cold mortality, population and potential damage. In this chapter, three examples illustrate the capabilities of NAPPFAST: (i) pathway analysis for Lymantria dispar asiatica (Asian gypsy moth); (ii) epidemiological modelling for Phytophthora ramorum (the cause of sudden oak death and other plant diseases); and (iii) simple population modelling for Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly). One advanced feature of NAPPFAST is cyber-infrastructure that supports the sharing of products and data between modellers and end users. The infrastructure includes tools for managing user access, uploading and correcting geographic coordinates for pest observations, and an interactive geographic information system environment for viewing input data and model products. NAPPFAST was used by the US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine, although access has been granted to government and university cooperators working on risk analysis of invasive alien species.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) The challenge of modelling and mapping the future distribution and impact of invasive alien species. Author(s): Venette, R. C.
Chapter: 2 (Page no: 18) Mapping endangered areas for pest risk analysis. Author(s): Baker, R., Eyre, D., Brunel, S., Dupin, M., Reynaud, P., Jarošík, V.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 35) Following the transportation trail to anticipate human-mediated invasions in terrestrial ecosystems. Author(s): Colunga-Garcia, M., Haack, R. A.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 49) Simulation modelling of long-distance windborne dispersal for invasion ecology. Author(s): Parry, H. R., Eagles, D., Kriticos, D. J.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 65) Using the MAXENT program for species distribution modelling to assess invasion risk. Author(s): Jarnevich, C. S., Young, N.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 97) Detecting and interpreting patterns within regional pest species assemblages using self-organizing maps and other clustering methods. Author(s): Worner, S., Eschen, R., Kenis, M., Paini, D., Saikkonen, K., Suiter, K., Sunil Singh, Vänninen, I., Watts, M.
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 115) Modelling the spread of invasive species to support pest risk assessment: principles and application of a suite of generic models. Author(s): Robinet, C., Kehlenbeck, H., Werf, W. van der
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 131) Estimating spread rates of non-native species: the gypsy moth as a case study. Author(s): Tobin, P. C., Liebhold, A. M., Roberts, E. A., Blackburn, L. M.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 145) Predicting the economic impacts of invasive species: the eradication of the giant sensitive plant from Western Australia. Author(s): Cook, D. C., Sheppard, A., Liu Shuang, Lonsdale, W. M.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 162) Spatial modelling approaches for understanding and predicting the impacts of invasive alien species on native species and ecosystems. Author(s): Allen, C. R., Uden, D. R., Johnson, A. R., Angeler, D. G.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 171) Process-based pest risk mapping using Bayesian networks and GIS. Author(s): Klinken, R. D. van, Murray, J. V., Smith, C.
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 189) Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model. Author(s): Koch, F. H., Yemshanov, D.
Chapter: 14 (Page no: 206) Making invasion models useful for decision makers: incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps and decision-making preferences. Author(s): Yemshanov, D., Koch, F. H., Ducey, M.
Chapter: 15 (Page no: 223) Assessing the quality of pest risk models. Author(s): Venette, S. J.