Invasive Species Compendium

Detailed coverage of invasive species threatening livelihoods and the environment worldwide

Abstract

Potential distributions of invasive vertebrates in the Iberian peninsula under projected changes in climate extreme events.

Abstract

Aim Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause profound impacts on ecosystem function and diversity, human health, well-being and livelihoods. Climate change is an important driver of biological invasions, so it is critical to develop models and climate-driven scenarios of IAS range shifts to establish preventive measures. In this study, we analyse how projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extreme events could affect the spread of the six most widely distributed invasive vertebrate species in the Iberian Peninsula. Location Iberian Peninsula. Taxa Red avadavat (Amandava amandava), common waxbill (Estrilda astrild), monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), rose-ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), American mink (Neovison vison) and pond slider (Trachemys scripta). Methods We followed best-practice standards for species distribution models (SDMs) regarding handling of the response and predictor variables, model building and evaluation using metrics that assess different facets of model performance. We used an ensemble approach with four modelling methods of varying complexity, including both regression-based and tree-based machine-learning algorithms. We analysed five regional models for current (1971-2000) and future climate (2021-2050). We used principal components analysis to assess consensus among model outputs and positively weighed predictions from well-performing models.