Species distribution modelling: Bombina bombina (Linnaeus, 1761) and its important invasive threat Perccottus glenii (Dybowski, 1877) in Latvia under global climate change.
Amphibians are greatly affected by invasive species through direct predation and competition. Being triggered by climate change, the invasion of Perccottus glenii (the Chinese sleeper) in Eurasia may have detrimental consequences for the fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina). The invader can feed upon B. bombina toads and juveniles and compete for food. We used correlative species distribution models (SDMs) to infer competitive interaction between the invader and native species. As a result, a significant level of correlation (r=0.636) between both SDMs was found. It means that there is a considerable overlap of areas of similar habitat suitability related to the species and a potential for competition. For strategical management of both species in Latvia for nature conservation purposes, we mapped areas in the country according to two main criteria: (1) the lesser chances of negative interactions between species, and (2) a possibility to avoid unwanted contact and/or competition between the fish and the toad.