The potential distribution analysis and economic loss prediction of Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province.
Objective: In order to provide basis for further control and prevention of Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), the potential habitat of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province and the possible losses which were caused by S. frugiperda to agriculture of Yunnan Province were predicted. Method: MaxEnt maximum entropy niche model was used to simulate the potential fitness probability of S. frugiperda in Yunnan by using known distribution point data and environmental variable data. The results were imported into ArcGIS 10.5 software for resampling and correlation analysis. According the area and yield data of main crops in 2017, and using the market price method, the damage loss model of S. frugiperda was preliminarily established, and the possible economic losses caused by S. frugiperda were predicted. Result: The results showed that the suitable habitats of S. frugiperda were widespread in Yunnan, and the highly suitable habitats (178500 km2) accounted for nearly 50% of the total land area of Yunnan. The medium suitable habitats and less suitable habitats were 160900 and 50600 km2. Among the environmental variables, the annual mean temperature contributed the most to the potential distribution of S. frugiperda, followed by the precipitation of driest season, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the driest month, and mean diurnal range had less effects on the distribution of S. frugiperda. The possible economic losses on corn, tobacco, tuber and sugarcane at the 10% occurrence area level were as high as 395-894 million yuan. Conclusion: S. frugiperda is suitable for almost the whole area of Yunnan. It has colonized and spread in more than 120 counties in Yunnan, which poses a great threat to the agriculture of Yunnan. In order to control the spread and harm of the S. frugiperda, the parties concerned should further strengthen the prevention and control efforts, closely monitor the dynamics of the insect situation, and actively carry out biological control and natural enemy control on the basis of pesticide control, so as to avoid the outbreak of disasters.