Risk of introduction of Lumpy Skin Disease into France through imports of cattle.
The lumpy skin disease (LSD) virus belongs to the genus Capripoxvirus and causes a disease in cattle with economic impacts. In November 2014, the disease was first reported in Europe (in Cyprus); it was then reported in Greece (in August 2015) and has spread through different Balkan countries since 2016. Although vector transmission is predominant in at-risk areas, long-distance transmission usually occurs through movements of infected cattle. In order to estimate the threat for France, a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed to assess the risk of LSD being introduced into France by imports of cattle. Based on available information and using a stochastic model, the probability of a first outbreak of LSD in France following the import of batches of infected live cattle for breeding or fattening was estimated to be 5.4×10-4 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.4×10-4; 28.7×10-4) in summer months (during high vector activity) and 1.8×10-4 (95% PI: 0.14×10-4; 15×10-4) in winter months. The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced into France through imports of live cattle. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on the changing health situation in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other diseases.