The effects of climate change on invasion potential of wild barley (Hordeum spontaneum K.Koch) in Iran and the world.
This paper presents the results of a study conducted to predict the potential invasion of wild barley grass (H. spontaneum) weed in Iran and other world regions under current climate and different climate change scenarios. Identifying suitable environmental areas for invasive species provides an opportunity to prevent or slow down the invasion process. Based on the presence intensity index of weeds, the climate of infestation hotspots in the Lorestan province, including Khorramabad (Aymanabad and Rimmelleh region), Dorud, Kuhdasht and Aleshtar, were defined as the favourable climate for wild barley. Wild barley-infected foci climate in Lorestan province was considered as a desirable climate for this weed. Climatic similarity of different regions of the world with the intended zone was evaluated as a criterion of invasion susceptibility of those regions in the current conditions and under climate change scenarios by using Climex model. Europe was the most suitable continent for invasion of wild barley, while South America and Africa continents in the current and future climates respectively had the minimum risk for establishment of wild barley.