Assessing the biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L): prospective analysis of the impact of the rosette weevil (Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger)).
Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L) (YST) is an invasive weed native to the Mediterranean region with a geographical centre of diversity in Turkey. It is widely established in Chile, Australia, and western North America. It arrived in California as a contaminant in alfalfa seed in 1859 and, by 2002, had infested >7.7 million hectares in the U.S.A. Biological control of YST using capitula feeding weevils, picture wing flies and a foliar rust pathogen has been ongoing in the western U.S.A. for more than three decades with limited success. Modelling and field research suggest natural enemies that kill whole plants and/or reduce seed production of survivors are good candidates for successful biological control. A candidate species with some of these attributes is the rosette weevil Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger). In the present study, a model of the rosette weevil is added to an extant system model of YST and its capitula feeding natural enemies and, in a GIS context, is used to assess YST control in the Palearctic region and the weevil's potential impact on YST in western U.S.A. The results obtained suggest densities of mature YST plants in western U.S.A. would be reduced by 70-80% in many areas.