Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands II: comparison of control strategies.
A combined epidemiological-economic modelling approach was used to analyse strategies for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control for the Netherlands. The modelling framework used was InterSpread Plus (ISP), a spatially based, stochastic and dynamic simulation model. A total of eight control strategies were analysed, including pre-emptive depopulation and vaccination strategies. The analysis was carried out for three different regions in the Netherlands: high-, medium- and low-density areas (HDA, MDA and LDA, respectively). The analysis included the veterinary impact (e.g. number of infected premises and duration), but was particularly focused on the impact on direct costs (DC) and direct consequential costs. The efficient set of control strategies for HDA and MDA included strategies based on either pre-emptive depopulation only or combined vaccination and pre-emptive depopulation: D2 (pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 2 km), RV3+D1 (ring vaccination within a radius of 3 km and additional pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km) and PV+D1 (preventive vaccination in non-affected HDAs and pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km in the affected HDA). Although control solely based on depopulation in most cases showed to be effective for LDA, pre-emptive depopulation showed to have an additional advantage in these areas, that is, prevention of 'virus jumps' to other areas. The pros and cons of the efficient control strategies were discussed, for example, public perception and risk of export restrictions. It was concluded that for the Netherlands control of HPAI preferably should be carried out using strategies including pre-emptive depopulation with or without vaccination. Particularly, the short- and long-term implications on export, that is, indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs of these strategies, should be analysed further.