How to select tree species for trials against the background of climate change?
With respect to the predicted climate change scenarios, the question arises whether certain exotic tree species could complement the native tree species which are supposed to be adapted to changed climate conditions. Climate-adapted tree species relevant to forestry were selected for cultivation tests using a stratified "three-filter-method": (1) a climatic filter, based on a global GIS orientated search for climatic regions in which both the recent and the predicted Bavarian climatic conditions could be found; (2) a utility value filter in terms of a utility value analysis, with which forest ecological and forest socio-economic parameters were evaluated; (3) a growth filter that evaluates already existing knowledge on tree growth of the selected species. Using these three filters, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus ponderosa, Abies bornmuelleriana [Abies nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani], Abies cephalonica, Pinus peuce, Pinus tabulaeformis, Pinus echinata, Pinus virginiana, Fagus orientalis [Fagus sylvatica], Carya glabra, Quercus mongolica and Tilia tomentosa were selected. For the future testing of those species, the availability of appropriate and certified seeds will be the crucial factor for final selection. The advantage of the method over a pure empirical selection of exotic tree species which would only be based on estimations on future growth recent growth capacity is the inclusion of predicted future climatic conditions.