A new fire blight forecasting system with first results in southwest Germany.
A new forecasting system for fire blight was developed in Germany over the last 5 years on the basis of the following 3 components: (i) data on the weather risk; (ii) data on the monitoring of the pathogen; and (iii) data on the orchard risk. The computerized system consists of 2 programmes, the FEUERBRA, estimating the regional risk and the ANLAFBRA, estimating the specific orchard risk. In following the mathematical basis of the programme, a description of the parameters and the first results in the fruit crop area of southwest Germany are presented. The 2 programmes are integrated in the system PASO (Prognose Agrarischer Schadorganismen) developed by the BBA Institute for Technology Assessment in Plant Protection, Kleinmachnow, Germany.