Invasive species and global climate change.

Chapter 14 (Page no: 248)

The biogeography of invasive plants - projecting range shifts with climate change.

Correlative models between species occurrences and climate (here referred to as 'species distribution models') have become increasingly popular for forecasting risk from invasive plants under current and future climate scenarios. These models have the potential to inform management and monitoring efforts by prioritizing landscapes considered to be at the highest risk under a changing climate. However, there is a wide range of choices regarding climatic predictor variables, modeling approaches and even distribution datasets. The effects of these choices on model projections are seldom defined explicitly, which reduces their utility for scientists and managers alike. This chapter reviews common practices of species distribution modeling as they apply to invasive plants. It also reviews major findings of recent projections of range shifts in invasive plants. In both cases, I explore how different choices of predictors, models and input data can influence conclusions in a species distribution modeling framework.

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