Invasive species and global climate change.

Chapter 8 (Page no: 141)

Ragweed in Eastern Europe.

Ambrosia is the most allergenic taxon and induces enormous losses in agriculture, tourism and other fields of the economy. Hence, its spread, weather-related characteristics and protection facilities need to be addressed. Since only Ambrosia artemisiifolia occurs in Eastern Europe, this chapter is concerned with this species of Ambrosia genus. The aim of the study is: (i) to provide an overview on the origin and distribution of Ambrosia from America to Europe, with a special focus on Eastern Europe; (ii) to determine the period of the highest daily Ambrosia pollen counts; (iii) to attempt to separate the medium-range transport including local pollen dispersion (pollen transport from at most 100 km away) from the long-range pollen transport (pollen transport from at least 100 km away); and (iv) to analyze quantity-related pollen season characteristics (total annual and annual peak pollen counts) and phenological characteristics of Ambrosia specific to Szeged, Hungary, in association with climate change-related constraints. We established that on average the period 18 August to 13 September has the highest daily pollen counts for Szeged (Hungary) as determined by the Makra test. We found out that in Europe the Carpathian Basin has the highest concentrations of Ambrosia pollen. Hence the Carpathian Basin represents the main source area of Ambrosia pollen for the city of Szeged. On non-rainy days, medium-range transport is important, while on rainy days the two transport ranges have almost equal weights, with the medium-range transport having a slightly higher value. A multiple association metric (MAM) is introduced that describes how well the annual cycle of the slope of the pollen concentration trend can be represented by a linear combination of annual cycles of slopes of climate variables trends. Two climate change-derived factors, namely the risk potential (RP) and expansion potential (EP), are introduced and are evaluated based on the pollen characteristics and the MAM value. Overall, Ambrosia pollen counts show a slight increase with a moderate warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in the 21st century. Ambrosia, particularly A. artemisiifolia, is well adapted to disturbance and abandoned habitats, and such habitats may, with changes in land use in Eastern Europe, become more prevalent.

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