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CABI Book Chapter

Biosecurity surveillance: quantitative approaches.

Book cover for Biosecurity surveillance: quantitative approaches.

Description

Biosecurity surveillance plays a vital role in protection against the introduction and spread of unwanted plants and animals. It involves not just collecting relevant information, but also analysing this information. This book focuses on methods for quantitative analysis of biosecurity surveillance data, where these data might arise from observations, sensors, remote imaging, expert opinion and so...

Chapter 3 (Page no: 43)

Getting the story straight: laying the foundations for statistical evaluation of the performance of surveillance.

This chapter describes the foundations for statistical evaluation of the performance of surveillance. A 'story', about a conversation between biosecurity and quantitative participants, helps weave together these concepts and make them less abstract. The chapter begins with an overview of the biosecurity questions applicable to quantitative analysis, by defining the types of response variables. This provides a basis for introducing the different statistical modelling paradigms that might be adopted for analysis, such as classical or frequentist hypothesis testing, Bayesian approaches and deterministic modelling. Regardless of paradigm, various objectives of the surveillance programme can be identified, and characterized, as 'seek and destroy', 'maintaining the status quo' or hybrids. The chapter proceeds by addressing the elements of statistical design, requiring a more detailed view of the spatio-temporal context of surveillance: identifying the unit of surveillance, the role of randomization, and issues of extent, scale and sampling effort. With all of this preparation, it is now possible to come to the main purpose of the chapter, to evaluate surveillance. This involves deciding whether diagnostic and/or predictive ability are paramount when quantifying surveillance efficiency and efficacy. To facilitate this, the roles of observation versus the reality of the pest incursion are separated and explained, taking advantage of Bayes' theorem. Finally the chapter and the accompanying story end by focusing on interpretation of surveillance design parameters: How can we describe what it is that we wish to learn from surveillance?

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) Introduction to Biosecurity surveillance: quantitative approaches. Author(s): Jarrad, F.
Chapter: 2 (Page no: 9) Biosecurity surveillance in agriculture and environment: a review. Author(s): Quinlan, M. Stanaway, M. Mengersen, K.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 75) Hierarchical models for evaluating surveillance strategies: diversity within a common modular structure. Author(s): Low-Choy, S.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 109) The relationship between biosecurity surveillance and risk analysis. Author(s): MacLeod, A.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 123) Designing surveillance for emergency response. Author(s): Havre, Z. van Whittle, P.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 137) The role of surveillance in evaluating and comparing international quarantine systems. Author(s): Mittinty, M. Whittle, P. Burgman, M. Mengersen, K.
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 151) Estimating detection rates and probabilities. Author(s): Hauser, C. E. Garrard, G. E. Moore, J. L.
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 167) Ad hoc solutions to estimating pathway non-compliance rates using imperfect and incomplete information. Author(s): Robinson, A. P. Chisholm, M. Mudford, R. Maillardet, R.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 181) Surveillance for soilborne microbial biocontrol agents and plant pathogens. Author(s): Whittle, P. Sundh, I. Neate, S.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 203) Design of a surveillance system for non-indigenous species on Barrow Island: plants case study. Author(s): Murray, J. Whittle, P. Jarrad, F. Barrett, S. Stoklosa, R. Mengersen, K.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 217) Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision makers' risk aversion. Author(s): Yemshanov, D. Koch, F. H. Ducey, M. Haack, R. A.
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 238) Detection survey design for decision making during biosecurity incursions. Author(s): Kean, J. M. Burnip, G. M. Pathan, A.
Chapter: 14 (Page no: 253) Inference and prediction with individual-based stochastic models of epidemics. Author(s): Gibson, G. Gilligan, C. A.
Chapter: 15 (Page no: 265) Evidence of absence for invasive species: roles for hierarchical Bayesian approaches in regulation. Author(s): Stanaway, M.
Chapter: 16 (Page no: 278) Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems. Author(s): Johnson, S. Mengersen, K. Ormsby, M. Whittle, P.
Chapter: 17 (Page no: 296) Statistical emulators of simulation models to inform surveillance and response to new biological invasions. Author(s): Renton, M. Savage, D.
Chapter: 18 (Page no: 313) Animal, vegetable, or ...? A case study in using animal-health monitoring design tools to solve a plant-health surveillance problem. Author(s): Hester, S. Sergeant, E. Robinson, A. P. Schult, G.
Chapter: 19 (Page no: 334) Agent-based Bayesian spread model applied to red imported fire ants in Brisbane. Author(s): Keith, J. M. Spring, D.

Chapter details

  • Author Affiliation
  • School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Gardens Point Campus, PO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
  • Year of Publication
  • 2015
  • ISBN
  • 9781780643595
  • Record Number
  • 20153099591