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CAB Reviews

A reviews journal covering agriculture, global health, nutrition, natural resources and veterinary science

CAB Review

Linking insect pest models with climate change scenarios to project against future risks of agricultural insect pests.

Abstract

The linking of climate projections and insect pest models is an important step for determining effective management and counter-measures. There is an urgent need to link pest models and climate change projections for a better understanding of the outcomes of climate change-inflicted variations in future pest status. The present review aims to summarize the insect pest models that have been linked with global circulation model-based climate change scenarios and also provide a reference for future risk evaluation of agriculturally and horticulturally important insect pests. Further, discussions are also included on linking of climatic pattern matching function and process-based climatic response-type models with climate change scenarios for understanding the impact of model selection on pest status. Most simulation models use projected temperature as the main driver to run for pest risk. A total of 29 climatic pattern matching and 19 phenology-based simulation studies for insect pest risk, mainly available from USA, China, Australia, India, New Zealand and Slovenia, met the criterion of linking pest models with climate change projections. Most of the studies considered only one or few GCM-based climate change projections. No study has been simulated with an option of management components. The present review suggests that insect pest modelling for future pest risk should include more GCMs with several climatic factors by also considering the cropping systems of a particular area.