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CABI Book Chapter

Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.

Book cover for Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species.

Description

The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup acknowledges that advanced training and a 'tool kit' of software packages are needed to produce pest risk maps that are fully fit for purpose. This book is an initial attempt to address those needs. Invited chapters emphasize specific steps and data requirements to guide users through the development of pest risk models and maps, or components thereof....

Metrics

Chapter 9 (Page no: 131)

Estimating spread rates of non-native species: the gypsy moth as a case study.

Estimating rates of spread and generating projections of future range expansion for invasive alien species is a key process in the development of management guidelines and policy. Critical needs to estimate spread rates include the availability of surveys to characterize the spatial distribution of an invading species and the application of analytical methods to interpret survey data. In this chapter, we demonstrate the use of three methods, (i) square-root area regression, (ii) distance regression and (iii) boundary displacement, to estimate the rate of spread in the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, in the USA. The gypsy moth is a non-native species currently invading North America. An extensive amount of spatial and temporal distributional data exists for this invader. Consequently, it provides an ideal case study to demonstrate the use of methods to estimate spread rates. We rely on two sources of data: (i) polygonal data obtained from county quarantine records describing the geographical extent of gypsy moth establishment; and (ii) point data consisting of counts of male gypsy moths captured in pheromone-baited traps used to detect and monitor newly established gypsy moth populations. Both data sources were compiled during the gypsy moth's invasion of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We show that even with spatially crude county records of infestation, spread rates can still be estimated using relatively simple mathematical approaches. We also demon strate how the boundary displacement method can be used to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of spread.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) The challenge of modelling and mapping the future distribution and impact of invasive alien species. Author(s): Venette, R. C.
Chapter: 2 (Page no: 18) Mapping endangered areas for pest risk analysis. Author(s): Baker, R. Eyre, D. Brunel, S. Dupin, M. Reynaud, P. Jarošík, V.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 35) Following the transportation trail to anticipate human-mediated invasions in terrestrial ecosystems. Author(s): Colunga-Garcia, M. Haack, R. A.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 49) Simulation modelling of long-distance windborne dispersal for invasion ecology. Author(s): Parry, H. R. Eagles, D. Kriticos, D. J.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 65) Using the MAXENT program for species distribution modelling to assess invasion risk. Author(s): Jarnevich, C. S. Young, N.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 82) The NCSU/APHIS plant pest forecasting system (NAPPFAST). Author(s): Magarey, R. D. Borchert, D. M. Fowler, G. A. Hong, S. C.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 97) Detecting and interpreting patterns within regional pest species assemblages using self-organizing maps and other clustering methods. Author(s): Worner, S. Eschen, R. Kenis, M. Paini, D. Saikkonen, K. Suiter, K. Sunil Singh Vänninen, I. Watts, M.
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 115) Modelling the spread of invasive species to support pest risk assessment: principles and application of a suite of generic models. Author(s): Robinet, C. Kehlenbeck, H. Werf, W. van der
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 145) Predicting the economic impacts of invasive species: the eradication of the giant sensitive plant from Western Australia. Author(s): Cook, D. C. Sheppard, A. Liu Shuang Lonsdale, W. M.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 162) Spatial modelling approaches for understanding and predicting the impacts of invasive alien species on native species and ecosystems. Author(s): Allen, C. R. Uden, D. R. Johnson, A. R. Angeler, D. G.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 171) Process-based pest risk mapping using Bayesian networks and GIS. Author(s): Klinken, R. D. van Murray, J. V. Smith, C.
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 189) Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model. Author(s): Koch, F. H. Yemshanov, D.
Chapter: 14 (Page no: 206) Making invasion models useful for decision makers: incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps and decision-making preferences. Author(s): Yemshanov, D. Koch, F. H. Ducey, M.
Chapter: 15 (Page no: 223) Assessing the quality of pest risk models. Author(s): Venette, S. J.