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CABI Book Chapter

Climate change and crop production.

Book cover for Climate change and crop production.


This book comprehensively addresses the impact of climate change on crop productivity and approaches to adapt to both biotic and abiotic stresses as well as approaches to reduce greenhouse gases. The predictions of climate change and its impact on crop productivity, adaptation to biotic and abiotic stresses through crop breeding, sustainable and resource-conserving technologies for adaptation to a...


Chapter 2 (Page no: 9)

Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture.

This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modelling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections. A summary of the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is also provided. The current scientific knowledge on climate change points to increases in temperature of 1-3°C to 2050 combined with some complex spatially explicit changes in rainfall. There remains high uncertainty in predictions of extreme events, especially hurricanes. The chapter then looks at the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, pest and disease prevalence, and CO2-based fertilization. The impacts on crop productivity are likely to be negative. While moderate increases in temperature may bring about moderate increases in productivity, beyond 1°C of warming the literature tends to agree that impacts will be negative. However, possible CO2-fertilization effects may cancel out these losses, although significant debate exists as to the extent of CO2 fertilization to expect. While most literature predicts increases in the prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, only a handful of studies have quantified possible impacts and further research is needed in this area.

Other chapters from this book

Chapter: 1 (Page no: 1) Adapting crops to climate change: a summary. Author(s): Reynolds, M. P. Ortiz, R.
Chapter: 3 (Page no: 38) Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture to 2030. Author(s): Lobell, D. Burke, M.
Chapter: 4 (Page no: 50) Preventing potential disease and pest epidemics under a changing climate. Author(s): Legrève, A. Duveiller, E.
Chapter: 5 (Page no: 71) Breeding for adaptation to heat and drought stress. Author(s): Reynolds, M. P. Hays, D. Chapman, S.
Chapter: 6 (Page no: 92) Breeding crops for tolerance to salinity, waterlogging and inundation. Author(s): Mullan, D. J. Barrett-Lennard, E. G.
Chapter: 7 (Page no: 115) Multi-location testing as a tool to identify plant response to global climate change. Author(s): Braun, H. J. Atlin, G. Payne, T.
Chapter: 8 (Page no: 139) Genetic approaches to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: increasing carbon capture and decreasing environmental impact. Author(s): Parry, M. A. J. Hawkesford, M. J.
Chapter: 9 (Page no: 151) Greenhouse gas mitigation in the main cereal systems: rice, wheat and maize. Author(s): Ortiz-Monasterio, I. Wassmann, R. Govaerts, B. Hosen, Y. Katayanagi, N. Verhulst, N.
Chapter: 10 (Page no: 177) How conservation agriculture can contribute to buffering climate change. Author(s): Hobbs, P. R. Govaerts, B.
Chapter: 11 (Page no: 200) Management of resident soil microbial community structure and function to suppress soilborne disease development. Author(s): Mazzola, M.
Chapter: 12 (Page no: 219) Biotechnology in agriculture. Author(s): Whitford, R. Gilbert, M. Langridge, P.
Chapter: 13 (Page no: 245) GIS and crop simulation modelling applications in climate change research. Author(s): Hodson, D. White, J.
Chapter: 14 (Page no: 263) Statistical models for studying and understanding genotype × environment interaction in an era of climate change and increased genetic information. Author(s): Crossa, J. Burgueño, J. Vargas, M.

Chapter details

  • Author Affiliation
  • International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, AA6713, Colombia.
  • Year of Publication
  • 2010
  • ISBN
  • 9781845936334
  • Record Number
  • 20103205483